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The Chinese Economy is On a Slowing Boat
James Finnan

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Tag >> economy
Jan 20

Wages aren't a problem only in China

Posted by Ron F in unemployment, Riskrecoverygrowtheconomydebtcredit crisisChina

Ron F

This Bloomberg take on Henry Fordism in China really takes the cake for mistaking the forest for the trees, if you'll pardon the woefully mixed metaphor.

First of all, the article breezily implies that a doubling in wages would promptly get Chinese consumption up to the point where the country can take over from the US as the engine of the global economy. But as we've pointed before, such a scenario would be historically unprecedented, however much appreciated by China's trading partners.

Jan 19

Economy-related stress is keeping most of us up at night

Posted by annearf in stressemployeeseconomycareer


It's a good bet you're not sleeping that well these days. 

In fact, it's likely few of your employees are, either.  And what's keeping you all up probably has a lot to do with your job, the state of  your company, your finances or all of the above.

Jan 06

Credit quality keeps improving

Posted by Stephen Taub in Standard & Poor'seconomydebt-rating agenciescredit-rating agenciescredit crisisCreditCapitalbonds

Stephen Taub

So, is the economy turning around? The skeptics-and there are always skeptics-say no, insisting the recent growth and positive economic signals are the result of inventory restocking and the stimulus bill. Once these factors are exhausted, we'll suffer a second dip in the decline, they argue.

Never mind that a majority of the stimulus funds haven't yet been spent on stimulating the economy, but this is a topic for another discussion.

Dec 30

A less than fond farewell to the aughts

Posted by Ron F in recoveryrecessionjoblessnesshiringemploymenteconomy, earnings

Ron F

It pretty much goes without saying that no one will have a hard time saying goodbye to the current decade, but a couple of recent posts at Econbrowser really drive home the point in economic terms.

Now if only the Pollyannas in the press and on Wall Street would take a serious look at this, maybe we could stop pretending the economy is heading for a decent recovery any time soon.

Dec 28

Effects of stimulus seen ready to fade

Posted by Ron F in stimulusrecoveryrecessionObama AdministrationeconomyCongress

Ron F

This won't please those who reflexively hate government spending, but a couple of reports in recent days strongly suggest that the economy is likely to slip back into recession in the second half of next year without more help from Washington.

That's because the effects of the $787 billion stimulus package enacted earlier this year are about to wear off. And as the chart here shows, that is about all that's keeping GDP in positive territory at present.

Dec 23

It's the real economy, stupid

Posted by Ron F in reformrecoveryrecessionObama Administrationemploymenteconomy

Ron F

Barry Ritholtz makes a point today about banks and their role in the economy that should be obvious by now but clearly bears repeating.

The banks may seem profitable enough to pay bonuses, thanks partly to taxpayer largesse and partly to the Fed's efforts to re-inflate the financial system.  

Dec 23

Cheerleading on the economy isn't enough

Posted by Ron F in Spendingrecoveryrecessionjoblessnessemploymenteconomy

Ron F

Much of the press on Tuesday ignored or at least downplayed the fact that third quarter GDP came in way below initial estimates.

In fact, the revision, to a final 2.2 percent estimate from an initial 3.5 percent, was the biggest change in the Commerce Department estimates since the fourth quarter of last year, when its Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that GDP had contracted by 6.3 percent instead of the 3.8 percent it had initially estimated.

Dec 22

More questions for Tim Geithner

Posted by Ron F in RiskRegulationreformrecoveryObama AdministrationeconomybonusesBanksbailout

Ron F

This interview with Tim Geithner strikes me as a hugely wasted opportunity. In fairness, the Q&A format doesn't lend itself to penetrating insight. Yet surely the interviewer, Daniel Gross, should have asked a follow-up on one answer that was really a non-answer to a key question, and asked another that went sorely begging. (Full disclosure, I worked with Gross on three occasions at CFO Magazine.)

First, Gross asked Geithner whether the financial industry was too large. And Geithner's answer was totally inadequate.

Dec 21

Temp work surge may be another false dawn

Posted by Ron F in recoveryrecessionjoblessnessemploymenteconomy

Ron F

I've found myself scratching my head over the significance of the recent upswing in hiring of temporary workers. But this article helps to put it in perspective.

As the Times points out, such hiring in normal recoveries leads to full time employment after three months, but so far that hasn't happened.

Dec 18

Surveys say: This will be a jobless recovery

Posted by MQuinn in surveys, recoveryjobseconomy


Another day, another survey on the outlook for jobs.

Today's poll comes courtesy of PricewaterhouseCoopers, which tried to take the pulse of the private company portion of the U.S. economy.

The survey found that 57 percent of the 260 CEOs and CFOs of privately-held companies interviewed plan to increase their workforce over the next 12 to 18 months, while 35 percent plan to hold staffing steady and only 5 percent expect a decrease.

This comes after yesterday's survey from the Association of Financial Professionals, which found that more than a quarter of respondents expect to shrink their payrolls in 2010, while 46 percent plan to keep staffing flat. 

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