By this point, press cheerleading for the economy is hardly newsworthy, and I'm not the first to notice the latest example.

But the down-is-up spin on Caterpillar's results cannot escape mention.  As the Business Insider notes, the Bloomberg story is tame by comparison with the ravings on CNBC yesterday.

I hate to rain on the parade celebrating signs of the recession's easing, but there's more evidence that the other shoe--commercial real estate--is about to drop.

I point to figures from Foresight Analytics, a real estate market consulting firm. First, recently released data on the second quarter shows that outstanding commercial construction loans--the amount of money being borrowed for construction--contracted by 2.2% from the previous quarter. That's compared to a modest increase of .3%  in the first quarter. Foresight predicts that downward trend will continue, thanks to a lack of new construction starts. It also is the first major contraction since 2003.