Reports that July existing home sales fell to a 15-year low have led pundits to blame the end of the home buyer tax credit.

As a result, spend-aholics want the government to reinstate this so-called stimulus measure. However, this would do little to help the housing industry.

After all, prospective home buyers already have been resisting the greatest incentive to purchase a new house-historically low mortgage rates.

Currently around 4.5 percent, the rates have the potential to provide more than the few thousand dollars that the tax credit provided to buyers of modestly-priced homes. Yet, as the data indicates, few people are taking advantage of these low rates.

This makes the lousy housing numbers the most worrisome of the recent flurry of bad economic data.

What this data is really telling us is that when it comes to spending, the country's horrible job environment could be impacting at least half or more of adults.

How do I figure? Well, first there is the 9.4 percent or so that are officially out of work and actively seeking a job. Then there are reports that another 5-8 percent are under-employed; they are working at jobs that pay much less than they were accustomed to, and would leave in a heartbeat if they received close to their old salary somewhere else.

You also have to figure another group is out of work but given up looking for a job for now-or are doing so half-heartedly--because they are so discouraged. Perhaps they have savings. Maybe they are moms-or even dads--who decided to stay home with their kids and wait out the job slump.

Then there is that portion of the job base few people like to acknowledge-those working off the books. Some of them are simultaneously receiving government benefits.

And then there is the large faction of people who have jobs and under current income and savings would easily qualify for a mortgage. However, they are so scared they could lose their job, they are acting like the unemployed and not spending on big ticket items, a home being the biggest of all.

So, from a spending standpoint, perhaps at least 50 percent-and maybe many more-of Americans are spending as if they are unemployed.

This also helps to explain the lackluster retail sales figures.

Here is the potential silver lining. There is already three years of pent-up demand for housing. If the job picture starts to turn in two years, that means we will have five years of pent-up demand. That is an enormous pool of potential home buyers to be unleashed into the market.

So, when Americans do finally feel confident to buy a new home, we could enjoy a huge housing boom we have not seen in decades. This will impact the financial services industry, home decorating and furnishings industries and real estate agents, brokers, lawyers, etc.

There is precedent. When I resumed looking for a new home in early 1984 after initially searching in late 1982-and then stopping for a year-the average price on the home I was considering had already jumped 50 percent or more.

Houses were literally being sold within hours after coming on to the market. One weekday I had an appointment to see a home with a lousy location after I got home from work. Before I left my office, it was already sold.

But, we have a couple of painful years at least before we can get to that euphoric level once again.