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Mar 02
2010

Stock buybacks herald a recovery? Really?

Posted by Ron F in unemploymentrecoveryrecessionM&AjoblessnessemploymenteconomyCashcapital expendituresbuybacks

Ron F

In its latest Herculean effort in positive spin, Reuters claims an increase in corporate stock buybacks is the latest sign of economic recovery.

Come again? If correlation isn't cause, then this article deserves a prize for mistaking the two, even if it marshaled a bit of data for evidence of the claim, which it decidedly does not.

But let's accept its undocumented assertion that buybacks are often accompanied by increases in M&A and capital expenditures.

Just how often has that been the case? And when was the last time it was? As we pointed out not too long ago, growth in capital expenditures during the past decade were about a third of what they were during the 1990s. And if another M&A boom is led by debt, as deal-making was during the last recovery, then there will be hardly much to celebrate there.

The fact is, the recovery of 2003 to 2007 produced the weakest job growth of any since the Great Depression. So even that recovery was characterized by buybacks, M&A and capex, it doesn't necessarily mean we're in for strong GDP growth.

Come on, guys, you're gonna have to do better than that to talk things up. The plain and simple fact that if companies had more compelling uses for the cash on their balance sheets, say, an acquisition or a business it wanted to expand, it would spend the money on that instead of buying back shares. Yes, buybacks mean companies may no longer be sitting on cash. But just because you see buybacks, M&A or capex going on at different companies during a typical recovery, whatever that is, that does not mean that one leads to the other.

Of all the cognitive stretches I've seen undertaken by the mainstream press to spin information in positive terms, and I see them every day, this one has to rank right up there with the longest.

While we're at it, any bets on how this week's various economic tea leaves are spun?

Mine is that the press will dismiss any worse than expected results as a product of bad weather, as if February were usually snow-free in most of the U.S., but will herald any better-than-expected results as fresh evidence that happy days are right around the corner.

Come to think of it, does anyone remember seeing a headline calling attention to the fact that January's new home sales were the worst on record? I sure don't. Nor do I recall much coverage on the fact that existing home sales fell in Jaunary despite the continued first-time buyer's tax credit.

Once again, it seems as if much of the mainstream press think its job is economic public relations. No wonder folks are reading blogs instead.

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