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Opinions and views from expert CFOZone members.


Mar 11
2010

Second-mortgage losses may require big banks to raise more capital

Posted by Ron F in Wells FargoTimothy GeithnerRegulationJP Morgan ChaseGeithnerFederal ReservecomplianceCitigroupBarney FrankBanksBank of Americabank failuresbailouts

Ron F

Bank of America claims it's comfortable with the amount of losses on second mortgages it would have to absorb if it complied with Barney Frank's request that it write them off so as reduce principal on first mortgages and thus help stem foreclosures.

But an analysis by financial blogger Mike Konzcal suggests such a view may be based rosy assumptions about the value of the second liens, and that the bank may have to raise more capital as a result. So might Citigroup and Wells Fargo, Konzcal finds.

The analysis, based on Federal Reserve data, shows that B of A would have to raise another $33.9 billion even if it recovered 60 percent of the value of 13 percent of the $158.5 billion in second mortgages that it told bank regulators during the stress test last year it expected to go bad last year and this.

For their part, Wells would have to raise another $13.7 billion and Citi another $5.5 billion because of losses on second mortgages, while JP Morgan would have to raise nothing, according to the analysis.

To Konzcal, that confirms that the capital raised following the stress tests was inadequate, and thus so were the tests themselves. After all, they were designed by Tim Geithner & Co. to produce what was needed to restore them to health yet the amounts could very well fall short.

Still, as Konzcal points out, both the New Yorker and Vanity Fair have featured fawning profiles of Geithner based on outcome of the tests.

And sure enough, today's Times published a piece saying the markets have pronounced the worst over for the financial services industry.

Will the cheerleading by the mainstream press ever cease?

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