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Opinions and views from expert CFOZone members.


Aug 25
2010

Ramping up for the next CMBS boom

Posted by mcole in RiskDealscommercial real estateBanks

mcole

The US commercial real estate market continues to struggle but Wall Street is already betting on a resurgence of the commercial mortgage-backed securities market.

US commercial real estate prices declined by 4 percent in June after two months of price increases and are still 41.4 percent below the peak recorded in October 2007, according to data from Moody's Investors Service. Delinquencies on loans in CMBS also continued to rise in July, though at a slower pace, according to Fitch Ratings.

The Wall Street Journal also reported Wednesday that some of the largest commercial-property owners are defaulting on debts and surrendering buildings worth less than their loans. Companies such as Macerich, Vornado Realty Trust and Simon Property Group have recently stopped making mortgage payments to put pressure on lenders to restructure debt, according to the article.

Yet, investment banks are gearing up for a rebound in the CMBS market. Wells Fargo, for example, added more than 20 bankers and support personnel in the past three months to increase loan originations and bundle them into CMBS, Bloomberg reported earlier this week. "We believe there is going to be a resurgence of CMBS, and we are investing in anticipation of it," Ed Blakey, head of commercial-mortgage lending and servicing at the bank, told Bloomberg.

Lower commercial real estate prices may actually be good news for investment banks like Wells Fargo, which can be more conservative in their structures as it makes underwriting loans less risky. Most recently, JPMorgan issued a $484.6 million CMBS transaction backed by real estate owned by Centro Properties Group.

But this is only good news as long as prices start increasing again soon.

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