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Oct 06
2009

Jobs Job One this time, says Pimco

Posted by Ron F in recoveryrecessionObama Administrationfinancial crisiseconomy

Ron F

It's gratifying to hear someone besides us at long last point out that the traditional view that unemployment is a lagging indicator doesn't hold true this time, even as President Obama joined the stock market in embracing that view just the other day.

Yet El-Erian doesn't really spell out why the pattern will be broken this time around. So here's one explanation courtesy of the International Monetary Fund that has been available since last spring.

As we've said before, the IMF study finds that recessions associated with financial crises tend to last longer and run deeper than those induced by higher interest rates imposed by central banks worried about inflation arising from excessive growth.

We all know there was a financial crisis not too long ago, right? In fact, we'd argue that it isn't really over.

You'd never know from the stock market's recent recovery and the happy talk that induced or at least accompanied it, or from Obama's leading economist.

Yes, the market's recent jitters reflect concerns about joblessness. But investors  clearly anticipated much better news on that front in running up stock prices some 50 percent from their lows earlier this year.

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