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Feb 06
2010

Guess what. Investors like bailouts

Posted by Ron F in RiskrecoveryrecessioneconomyCashbailouts

Ron F

The market bounced back today big time, but not because of the unexpected decline in unemployment, from 10 percent to 9.7 percent, even though it was produced in part by surprisingly strong hiring in the manufacturing sector.

Caterpillar and GE hiring is good news, no? Evidently not for investors worried that the potential for wage growth producing higher inflation will lead to higher interest rates and lower risk-adjusted returns.

Instead, investors cheered the fact that the European Union may bail out Greece.

Huh? Yes, I just heard Harvard's Ken Rogoff say on NPR that Europe's troubles could shave a full point off of GDP, though he didn't really explain what exactly it would take.

Still, let's assume Rogoff is right. Is an EU bailout of Greece really going to solve anything? No matter, as equity investors evidently see better risk-adjusted returns in such government rescues than they do in the kind of job growth that would put the global economy on a sounder footing.

Call it the Greenspan Put on steroids. But something is seriously wrong with that, and it's called the market driving one bubble after another after another without anything being done to address economic fundamentals. (For one thing, can't we please have the hiring by Catepillar and GE continue before the Fed slams on the brakes?) But I've ranted about that many times before, and it's 4:50 on a Friday afternoon and I don't want to make anyone work overtime.

 

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