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(Reuters) President
Barack Obama will be able to put his stamp on the Federal Reserve with
appointments for perhaps as many as four seats on the central bank's board in
coming months, even though he emphasized continuity in tapping Ben Bernanke for
another term as chairman last month.
With the U.S.
economy seemingly heading for a jobless recovery from recession, Obama may want
to lean toward nominees who are likely to be patient before edging up borrowing
costs ahead of congressional elections in November.
He may also
want a strong advocate of efforts to rein in financial excesses at a time the
administration is pushing for tougher checks on Wall Street firms. The
administration wants to expand the Fed's role by giving it the job of
regulating firms whose collapse could imperil the entire economy.
Two vacancies
already exist on the normally seven person Fed board, and some observers think
two more could open up.
Donald Kohn's
term as Fed vice chairman expires in June next year. The 66-year-old central
bank veteran, whose separate term as a board member does not expire until 2016,
has given no sign he plans to retire, but some observers expect he will.
Some analysts
also expect Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, an alumnus of the Bush White House, may
be ready to go with Democrats in power. He too has not signaled any intent to
leave.
Obama has
already named bank regulation expert Daniel Tarullo to the board. If he were to
end up with four more quick picks, it would give him a highly unusual
opportunity to shape the central bank so early in his term.
"With
financial overhaul, and if the Fed does have more power, then having your guys
in there could be interesting," said Michael Feroli, an economist with J.P.
Morgan Economics.
Even if
Obama's choice of the Republican Bernanke meant passing over fellow Democrats
such as White House aide Lawrence Summers or San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank
President Janet Yellen, it was effective in calming financial markets worried
about the economy's path to recovery.
Economists
widely agree that central banks are most effective when politically
independent, and any blatant sign of political pressure could translate into
higher borrowing costs as markets bet on a higher tolerance for inflation.
With that goal
in mind, the Fed board is designed to be insulated from politics with 14-year
terms for governors and concurrent four-year terms for the chairman and vice
chairman.
How much sway
Obama might gain over monetary policy by naming four more board members is
uncertain.
Indeed, how
much influence he would want is not clear either. Recent administrations, both
Democrat and Republican, have steered clear of anything that could be seen as
pressuring the central bank and Obama appears headed down the same path by
renaming Bernanke.
By tradition,
the Fed is a collegial institution where the chairman holds great power and
dissenters are rare. Officials generally check their ideologies at the door and
consensus decisions, which carry greater heft, regularly carry the day.
"When
people get on the board, it's more or less like the Supreme Court, you realize
that you're no longer an advocate ... for a political persuasion, but you're
working for an institution that has a fierce streak of independence," said
Gilbert Schwartz, a former Fed lawyer.
As a result,
many observers expect one of Obama's picks to be a highly regarded economist in
the mold of Frederic Mishkin, a Bush appointee who returned to teaching at
Columbia University last year.
To make an
imprint, the president is more likely to pick someone open to strengthening
financial rules than someone who will turn a blind eye to inflationary
pressures in promoting economic growth.
"My money
would be one of the next appointments ... would be a lawyer who is perceived as
friendly to the consumer bar," said Mark Calabria, a former Republican
Senate Banking Committee staffer.
Obama may also
want a Fed governor adept at defending the central bank's role before a
Congress that is both resentful over the Fed's bailouts of financial firms and
angry the central bank failed to prevent the credit crisis.
Draft
legislation from Representative Ron Paul, a perennial Fed critic, that would
subject the central bank to a range of audits has gained surprising support and
a version is expected to be included in an overhaul of financial regulations.
Bernanke has
expressed concern Paul's proposal as currently written would open the door to
examinations of Fed interest-rate decisions that would undermine the central
bank's policy-making independence and potentially roil markets.
The Fed has defended
its actions as needed to prevent a repeat of the Great Depression. But
congressional ire threatens to derail Obama's push to give the central bank
responsibility for ensuring the soundness of the financial system.
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